POLITICS: Thoughts on Turkey/Syria/Kurdish issue…

Thoughts on Turkey/Syria/Kurdish issue…

Everyone is bashing Trump. Could the withdrawal have been done better? Yes…and No!
(Hear me out.)

We have nearly 200,000 soldiers deployed across over 150 nations. There are ~200 nations across the globe. That means we have soldiers in 3 out of 4 countries. I don’t think any other nation in the history of the world has even approached having a military presence in half.

So if we’re going to start drawing down on our empire. And as oil continues it’s decline of value, there will be less and less motivation to be everywhere. We will be slowly pulling out of many regions of the world. Motivation will come from both the right (fiscal conservatives & libertarian branches) and the left (progressive & youth).

There were two options for handling this…

a) a slow lingering drawdown until we’re there in name only, and maybe an occasional airstrike.

b) a fast withdrawal

What are the likely results of each? The first, would prevent what we see today. But potentially, could be a far worse outcome. Peace would remain for several seasons. We’d be tested early on, likely resulting in a few airstrikes. Then things would be quiet for the next several years. A few rifle skirmishes here and there. But those would not garner retaliatory strikes. But after a decade or two, the Kurds would largely be forgotten. Our presence will have quietly departed. The attacks would be stepped up, and eventually reach the point of reaching U.S. news headlines. There will be some discussion of whether we should act. But economic recession and a distaste for war will lead the American political structure to merely passively condemn the actions. Allowing full military action against the Kurds and all matter of atrocities, without opposition, so long as it is shy of genocide. The Kurds will be done.

The present action represents the second choice A near identical scenario as when the British withdrew from the Middle-East. And we had Arabs immediately attack Israelis. Few expected the Israeli nation to survive more than a few months…but it did. Maybe the Kurds will surprise as well. It’s one thing to throw bombs, it’s a very different thing to hold territory and dislodge an armed populace that believes (and likely is) fighting for it’s life. (Perhaps Israelis will come to the support of the Kurds, providing small arms and air defenses. Sounds crazy, but imagine the shift in the Middle East if Israel going itself with a loving ally on the flanks of it’s staunchest enemies? Imagine if Israel established an foreign airbase in Kurdistan, providing mutual protection, while also allowing Israel to no longer have all it’s eggs in a single basket. What if that ally, in like fashion, gained territory with every attempt to attack it. Could happen… Doubtful, but a fascinating paradigm to play out in a gaming table.

Back to reality…

Do you take the band-aid off slowly or quickly? Both options suck.

Here’s the thing. The fast U.S. pullout and immediate armed actions by Turkey are raising the visibility of the Kurds. It’s essentially forcing the Western world to decide to act. The U.S. is forcing the E.U. to put up or shut up. And frankly, if the E.U. doesn’t put up on a matter on their back yard, it will cast do much doubt that between Brexit and failure in this matter, the European Union is likely to destabilize and dissolve.

There is more to this game than the average news viewer or Facebook user is aware of. Turkey is a member of NATO. Turkey has been attempting to become a member state of the European Union. Which has in recent years come to a grind. The European Union is in a better position to handle and negotiate with Turkey.

E.U. could move to offer the paddle and the bone. Give Turkey an ultimatum.

1. Stop the actions against the Kurds, allow the formation of an independent Kurdish state, and in return the E.U. will re-open membership discussions and provide financial incentives to assist Turkey internally, in order to aide the Turkish government in reform and gain popular support via economic improvement for it’s populace.

OR

2. Threaten to expel Turkey from NATO. Remove any economic privileges and enact harsh sanctions that will decimate it’s rainin economy and surely lead to regime change, and put Turkey on the path to become another Iran.

CHOOSE…

And this is the game that I think is currently being played out. And to the Kurds suffering in Syria. Forgive us. Please forgive the world entire. And perhaps this will end in a new land for you and not the genocide and destruction of another people’s of the Earth.

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